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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.